“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” – Phillip Fisher
“Price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to…the operating results of his companies.”
–Ben Graham, The Intelligent Investor,
At Investing 501, Gregg and I try to help others improve their investment process by sharing our experiences on Seeking Alpha. One of our more popular articles was entitled, The Illusion of Control, which discussed how investors could improve their investment process by focusing on understanding businesses and how to value them and by not constantly trying to find that “new” piece of information that would bring more clarity to an investment idea. The stark reality is that we have significantly less control over our investment outcomes than we want to believe. We also posted an article on our blog entitled, “What are you hoping to gain by checking that stock price right now?” We consider the act of frequently checking stock quotes and looking at price charts to be part of the pursuit of trying to find “new” information and doing so can be detrimental to the performance of a long-term investor. In this article I will expand on the previous articles.
Next time you feel compelled to look up a stock quote, write down why you want to know what the stock is doing. After you know the quote, write down what you think you gained by doing so. How does that revelation help you in your long-term investment thesis on the company? If you truly believe that you are going to hold a stock for a few years, how does knowing what the stock is doing today add value to that thesis? There might even be some proximate news item (earnings perhaps) that is apparently driving the change in the stock price. If you are buying stocks with low valuations, the company is usually struggling from an operational standpoint. Turnaround results are not linear. The chances you bought the stock right before turnaround happens and therefore all stock price reactions to “new news” is positive is very low. My guess is there will be more negative stock price reactions to “new news” initially. Stop looking for validation of your long-term investment premise in the daily, mostly random, movements in stock prices.